Friday, February 20, 2009

Not Again

The bear almost killed me. The trading account was nearly wiped out. Made one last bet in desperation pinning all my hope for a late rally as the week was drawing to a close and there had to be some unwinding to be done for all the shorts. Got lucky this time. I'm not sure if this game is right for me.

Ending Bal: €61,666

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Bad

Today was the worst day since I re-started day trading - the bear was powerful and I didn't trust what I saw. Real dumb.

Tomorrow will be important and I cannot afford to have another day like today.

Housing Start: 1:30 pm; Industrial Production: 2:15 pm.

Ending Balance: €47,576

Meat & Drink

How are we going to get the jobs back? How are we going to get credit out of the banks so that we can spend like it used to be?

A 10 trillion dollar question? A meat and drink question? But if this is what we care about, we are in for a deeper crisis - WW III.

We all know that the hole is deep. The total capitalization of ALL banks in the world was about US$2 trillion in 2007. Now that the American is about to pour over US$1.5 trillion (TARP approved and the recent stimulus package combined) into that hole and yet there is no telling of a sure remedy.

Protectionism will gradually emerges. Understandable. Who would invest billions of dollars only to find them ending up in an overseas steel mill. US Steel only, no doubt.

The big leap forward to globalization in the past 2 decades has essentially eliminate our country's border. And if we are to think of a remedy still largely within a country's border, there will be no cure. We have to address the ultimate question of how are we going to re-distribute the wealth of the world, equitably - are we doing the right thing when someone whose primarily skill is to kick a ball around gets over £100,00 a week while someone who is picking our beloved banana 7 days a week 12 hours a day gets no more than £1 a day.

People nowadays no longer ask a "Bread & Butter" question anymore - these are things we take for granted - we have changed what it used to be a "Bread & Butter" question to a "Meat & Drink" question. There are millions and millions of people out there who have to go to sleep with an empty stomach. I am not living in an utopia but until and unless we can address this as something more fundamental as a member of the human race instead of some American, British, French, Chinese, German........ , we are missing the point by a mile!

Today: 6pm Housing Market Index

Ending Balance: €80,429

Sunday, February 8, 2009

The Flagship is Sinking

Seems like we are in for a short selling Monday for the FTSE 100 as the government's flagship welfare policy to reward private firms for hiring the unemployed is apparently in crisis.

Good luck.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Remember These Lows

Nov. 20 closes:
7,552.29 for the Dow;
752.44 for the S&P 500;
1,316.12 for the Nasdaq.

These will be tested in the coming months.

Monday should see the DOW continue to rally until "the package" is approved by the Senate, possibly late in the afternoon.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Positive Bias

FTSE 100 is exhibiting a fairly strong positive bias this morning. My guess is that it will test 4300 today and will probably close above it. (Currently 4,264)

The jobless figure is now out of the way. The only way seems UP.

Ending Bal: €70,877

Thursday, February 5, 2009

3 out of 5 is BAD

Did 5 trades this morning. Won 3 lost 2. The loss was avoidable. FTSE went into a free fall after the rate cut. Shouldda known better.

Ending Bal: €63,780

Expectation

It is always expectation that counts. The actual news announcement does not matter. Even when it does, it's selling on good news, buying on bad news.

Ending Bal: €60,063

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Too Many Trades

Gotta reduce the number of trades I'm doing.  This game is getting too stressful.

Tomorrow at 1:30pm (8:30am EST) - Jobless Claims & Productivity.

Also BoE (MPC) rates meeting, expectation is for 50 basis point cut to 1%.  This was already taken into account in today's FTSE 100 and is unlikely to translate into any substantial fluctuation in the stock market when announced. Banking business  is going to get more difficult. £ should fall further. Both can weight on the FTSE tomorrow.

Ending Bal: €62,913

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Ticks

Watch the ticks:

↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ or

↓ ↓ ↓ ↑

Works 75% of the time today.

Ending Bal: €61,724

How Low is Low?

Gotta keep asking myself this classic question: how bloody low is low?

I suppose that this game absolutely requires us to be confident, be decisive, be brave and be anything except being stubborn.

The dumb trades I made last Friday was primarily a result of being foolishly stubborn. I bet on a rebound which never came.

Today's few hours have seen some erratic movements in DOW. No major stats and corporate results will likely dictate where the market is going. I think it will test the 8000 mark later in the afternoon.

Ending Bal: €57,141